Fundamentals of Mechanics

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The Fundamentals Of Cryptocurrency Investment

(Disclaimer: Author holds investments in ether, bitcoin, EOS and Bitcoin Cash.)

2018 has already been another stellar year for organizations raising money for blockchain and cryptocurrency projects. While initial coin offerings (ICOs) reportedly raised more than $3.69 billion in 2017, the total amount raised this year already stands at a staggering $17.25 billion in late July, according to CoinSchedule.

Should the current trend I've observed in crowdsourced funding for technology companies continue, it will be important for investors to discern the nuances of investing in blockchain technologies and the virtual assets created on top of them, as ICO investors usually receive virtual assets in the form of coins or tokens in return for ether or bitcoin. Here's what you need to know about common blockchains and assets.

Fundamentals Of Currency

To understand cryptocurrencies, investors should first recall the fundamental tenets of currencies: They are typically units of measurement, stores of value and mediums of exchange. Blockchain-based virtual assets — such as cryptographic tokens — often demonstrate these three characteristics of currency. However, as an investor, I advise you to consider if and when these functions are only a byproduct of the objective inscribed by the creators into the asset's software code before investing in a cryptocurrency.

Ethereum's Ether

Ether is a virtual asset on Ethereum. Even in the current bear market, one ether trades at about $292 as of this writing, according to CoinDesk. That puts the market cap of the Ethereum blockchain at $29.66 billion — which isn't far off from the current valuation of NASDAQ-traded Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF.

Ethereum’s Virtual Machine, which allows developers to write programs called "smart contracts," executes if the user makes a payment in its native currency ether. These transaction costs on the Ethereum blockchain are consequently labeled as "gas." Like its real-world counterpart, gasoline, I believe this virtual gas should be valued by investors — not for its currency properties or inherent value but for the utility it fulfills in the Ethereum network. The more applications that are being built and used on the blockchain, the more demand ether is likely to have.

EOS

EOS is the virtual asset native to the recently launched blockchain EOS.IO. While providing similar functions as Ethereum, users of the EOS.IO blockchain are not required to pay for transactions in the blockchain’s native asset, "EOS." Block.one, which raised a reported $4 billion to fund the launch and rollout of EOS.IO, has according to a July 2018 report allocated about $700 million to grow the EOS.IO ecosystem. Like with other cryptocurrencies, one benefit to investors is that EOS token holders may receive free tokens from projects funded by venture firms supporting blockchain in what is referred to as an airdrop. I believe investors in Ethereum’s ether might also find it valuable to keep at least a small number of EOS in their digital wallets as an easy way to keep track of applications being launched on EOS.IO.

Tokens On The Ethereum Blockchain

The Ethereum blockchain provides an easy-to-navigate, token-generation interface referred to as the ERC20 Token Standard. This standard ensures that all people who control electronic wallets that comply with this standard can receive new tokens generated this way. These tokens can also easily be listed on exchanges that support this Ethereum standard, and most of the more than 200 virtual asset exchanges do.

Tokens created by software engineers on the public Ethereum blockchain are usually coded to fulfill a specific function, such as triggering an event, allowing access or assigning other rights. These tokens are therefore not created as "units of measurement." Consequently, I advise investors to value these tokens according to the overall validity of the system they are being deployed in, using startup investment criteria such as the state of the technology, experience of the team and product market fit. Good starting points for an investor’s research are the LinkedIn profiles of the team members (for qualifications) and activity of the GitHub repository of the project (to track progress). Positive signs are teams led by previously successful technologists and depositories with code development stretching back over a year or more.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin blockchain and its currency, bitcoin (the lower case "b" differentiates the currency from the blockchain and concept), is identified by its original creators in their 2008 whitepaper on the currency as electronic cash (registration required). However, unlike fiat currencies — which are created continuously and as needed by governments — bitcoin's total supply is limited by code to a total of 21 million, making bitcoin inherently scarce. Even though a number of major currencies accept bitcoin as a form of payment, most signals seem to suggest that bitcoin is mostly bought for its "store of value" function. I recommend, therefore, that investors approach bitcoin purchases in the same manner as they would approach the purchase of gold: as a hedge against their stocks or bond holdings.

Pure Cryptocurrencies

A few virtual assets were created for the specific purpose of functioning solely as a cryptocurrency. These cryptocurrencies include Zcash, Dash, Monero and Bitcoin Cash. Zcash publishes transactions on its public blockchain, but the currency's privacy features enable users to conceal the sender, recipient and amount being transacted. Dash — launched as "Darkcoin" — also provides privacy functions to users and is using a self-governed organizational structure referred to as a Decentralized Autonomous Organization.

The value of any currency is mostly determined by the soundness of its monetary policies and inflationary tendencies. Investors seeking to add cryptocurrencies to their portfolio should familiarize themselves with the government models of the blockchains these assets are being created on and follow their specific use cases, which can generally be found in the whitepapers published by these projects. Mainstream adoption, such as when well-known merchants accept the currencies and when U.S. exchanges such as Coinbase add them, is also a positive signal for investors to look as they build a cryptocurrency portfolio.

Conclusions

I believe that blockchains and their applications, such as cryptocurrencies, are likely to play a central role in the future of any investment strategy. However, investing in these assets is not yet well understood. This is likely in part because of their nascent history and because of contradictory handling by government agencies in the U.S. and abroad that seem to incorrectly conflate cryptocurrencies with other blockchain-based assets and functions. I advise investors to look at each blockchain project's individual merits. They should use standard venture investment criteria such as the team or community supporting the technology, the size of the market opportunity and the current development status of the product while differentiating cryptographic currencies from cryptographic assets.

ChatGPT struggles to answer medical questions, new research finds

CNN  — 

ChatGPT might not be a cure-all for answers to medical questions, a new study suggests.

Researchers at Long Island University posed 39 medication-related queries to the free version of the artificial intelligence chatbot, all of which were real questions from the university’s College of Pharmacy drug information service. The software’s answers were then compared with responses written and reviewed by trained pharmacists.

The study found that ChatGPT provided accurate responses to only about 10 of the questions, or about a quarter of the total. For the other 29 prompts, the answers were incomplete or inaccurate, or they did not address the questions.

The findings were presented Tuesday at the annual meeting of the American Society for Health-Systems Pharmacists in Anaheim, California.

ChatGPT, OpenAI’s experimental AI chatbot, was released in November 2022 and became the fastest-growing consumer application in history, with nearly 100 million people registering within two months.

Given that popularity, the researchers’ interest was sparked by concern that their students, other pharmacists and ordinary consumers would turn to resources like ChatGPT to explore questions about their health and medication plans, said Sara Grossman, an associate professor of pharmacy practice at Long Island University and one of the study’s authors.

Those queries, they found, often yielded inaccurate – or even dangerous – responses.

In one question, for example, researchers asked ChatGPT whether the Covid-19 antiviral medication Paxlovid and the blood-pressure lowering medication verapamil would react with each other in the body. ChatGPT responded that taking the two medications together would yield no adverse effects.

In reality, people who take both medications might have a large drop in blood pressure, which can cause dizziness and fainting. For patients taking both, clinicians often create patient-specific plans, including lowering the dose of verapamil or cautioning the person to get up slowly from a sitting position, Grossman said.

ChatGPT’s guidance, she added, would have put people in harm’s way.

“Using ChatGPT to address this question would put a patient at risk for an unwanted and preventable drug interaction,” Grossman wrote in an email to CNN.

When the researchers asked the chatbot for scientific references to support each of its responses, they found that the software could provide them for only eight of the questions they asked. And in each case, they were surprised to find that ChatGPT was fabricating references.

At first glance, the citations looked legitimate: They were often formatted appropriately, provided URLs and were listed under legitimate scientific journals. But when the team attempted to find the referenced articles, they realized that ChatGPT had given them fictional citations.

In one case, the researchers asked ChatGPT how to convert spinal injection doses of the muscle spasm medication baclofen to corresponding oral doses. Grossman’s team could not find a scientifically established dose conversion ratio, but ChatGPT put forth a single conversion rate and cited two medical organizations’ guidance, she said.

However, neither organization provides any official guidance on the dose conversion rate. In fact, the conversion factor that ChatGPT suggested had never been scientifically established. The software also provided an example calculation for the dose conversion but with a critical mistake: It mixed up units when calculating the oral dose, throwing off the dose recommendation by a factor of 1,000.

If that guidance was followed by a health care professional, Grossman said, they might give a patient an oral baclofen dose 1,000 times lower than required, which could cause withdrawal symptoms like hallucinations and seizures.

“There were numerous errors and “problems’ with this response and ultimately, it could have a profound impact on patient care,” she wrote.

The Long Island University study is not the first to raise concerns about ChatGPT’s fictional citations. Previous research has also documented that, when asked medical questions, ChatGPT can create deceptive forgeries of scientific references, even listing the names of real authors with previous publications in scientific journals.

Grossman, who had worked little with the software before the study, was surprised by how confidently ChatGPT was able to synthesize information nearly instantaneously, answers that would take trained professionals hours to compile.

“The responses were phrased in a very professional and sophisticated manner, and it just seemed it can contribute to a sense of confidence in the accuracy of the tool,” she said. “A user, a consumer, or others that may not be able to discern can be swayed by the appearance of authority.”

A spokesperson for OpenAI, the organization that develops ChatGPT, said it advises users not to rely on responses as a substitute for professional medical advice or treatment.

The spokesperson pointed to ChatGPT’s usage policies, which indicate that “OpenAI’s models are not fine-tuned to provide medical information.” The policy also states that the models should never be used to provide “diagnostic or treatment services for serious medical conditions.”

Although Grossman was unsure of how many people use ChatGPT to address medication questions, she raised concerns that they could use the chatbot like they would search for medical advice on search engines like Google.

“People are always looking for instantaneous responses when they have this at their fingertips,” Grossman said. “I think that this is just another approach of using ‘Dr. Google’ and other seemingly easy methods of obtaining information.”

For online medical information, she recommended that consumers use governmental websites that provide reputable information, like the National Institutes of Health’s MedlinePlus page.

Still, Grossman doesn’t believe that online answers can replace the advice of a health care professional.

“[Websites are] maybe one starting point, but they can take their providers out of the picture when looking for information about medications that are directly applicable to them,” she said. “But it may not be applicable to the patients themselves because of their personal case, and every patient is different. So the authority here should not be removed from the picture: the healthcare professional, the prescriber, the patient’s physicians.”