Analysis: After strong finish in '23, this Pirates offseason has brought more questions than answers

Jan. 3—When the Pirates exited PNC Park for the final time of the 2023 regular season this past October, there was a reasonable amount of optimism. They finished with a 37-35 record, doing so primarily with talented youngsters on controllable contracts.

That stretch of solid baseball obviously came without Oneil Cruz, their most exciting player who saw just nine games before incurring a season-ending ankle injury. The improvement was also driven by Ke'Bryan Hayes, who found a new offensive gear. There were imperfections, sure. But you could see the space to grow around a talented young core.

However, those kernels of optimism — however small — that surrounded the Pirates just a few months ago have seemingly disappeared, the arc of their offseason changed. There's lingering and legitimate concern over the depth of the starting rotation, who's going to catch, whether some division rivals might be better and more.

With PiratesFest approaching this weekend — a date on the calendar the organization would surely like to celebrate, not avoid — let's examine some of the key discussion points around the team.

1. The pitching depth

While it's hard to argue with Andrew McCutchen's return and it makes some measure of sense to platoon Rowdy Tellez and Connor Joe at first, the lack of starting pitching depth continues to be worrisome.

Figure, they finished the year with two starting pitchers (Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo), lost one (Oviedo) to Tommy John surgery and added one via trade (Marco Gonzales) and another in free agency (Martin Perez, whose addition, despite the news breaking on Dec. 18, has weirdly not yet been announced).

For anyone who might struggle with math, that's basically one more traditional starter — though we should acknowledge one addition (Gonzales) had season-ending surgery to decompress a nerve in his throwing arm and the other (Perez) was at one point banished to the bullpen.

They could use some certainty.

The Pirates also have minor league depth to trade, both when it comes to a second-base logjam that includes Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero and more, as well as prospects deeper down in their minor league system.

But as general manager Ben Cherington held his season-ending media session and talked about wanting to have 10 usable arms for starting spots, you'd have to be really generous to get there.

Looking at guys on their 40-man roster who are both healthy and have made MLB starts, that's Mitch Keller, Gonzales, (eventually) Perez, Quinn Priester, Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, Jackson Wolf, Max Kranick ... plus JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows down the road.

2. Health of Cruz

Remember when Cruz was expected to return to MLB games in early August? That was fun. Now, the latest rumblings involving the 6-foot-7 shortstop are that the Pirates did not want him to play winter ball in his native Dominican Republic.

Their motives might've been understandable. It was late in the season down there, Pittsburgh should be the priority, and they also had a silly injury occur with Endy Rodriguez. Why risk it?

At the same time, this is a big piece — literally and figuratively. The Pirates need Cruz to deliver on his 30-30 and 40-40 potential.

That sort of freakishness was on display as Cruz mashed balls during batting practice during the final road series in Philadelphia. He did not look like someone who was physically limited by anything. At the same time, much has happened since then.

Here's hoping the Pirates are simply operating with an abundance of caution and Cruz is healthy and stays that way.

3. Catching conundrum

Though he obviously had some faults, including five passed balls and a .612 OPS, Rodriguez did more than enough to warrant getting the bulk of the catching reps in 2023. Great kid. Respected by everyone. Rocket arm. A tough transition with the bat. Just needed time.

The outlook back there is different now.

Unless the Pirates do something between now and mid-February, it's a timeshare between Jason Delay and Henry Davis (and maybe Ali Sanchez) — a career backup with a .604 OPS in two seasons, someone who was entrusted to catch exactly two major league innings during his rookie year, and someone with seven MLB games on his ledger, none the past two seasons.

Now, Delay was starter-level good in Baseball Savant's fielding run value and FanGraphs' calculation of defensive runs saved, not to mention a top-10 pitch-framer. So maybe defense will carry the day.

But there are enough questions here — can Davis defend, the other two hit or the whole group navigate 162 games — that it's fair to be a little concerned about depth and production at the position.

4. Impact of TV deal

On the surface, everything looks fine. The Pirates and Penguins became joint owners of SportsNet Pittsburgh, keeping the regional sports network (RSN) model intact and ensuring fans could continue to consume as much content as possible.

But at what cost?

The value of the last TV was never precisely known, but it was believed to be at least $50 million and closer to $60 million. I don't think that the new arrangement comes particularly close to either of those numbers, though it is (thankfully) a short-term deal.

Cherington has maintained the TV deal won't impact how the major league payroll looks in 2024. However, given their needs and lack of payroll growth year-over-year (despite a 30% uptick in attendance), there's some work to do to convince fans otherwise.

5. Around the division

In dire need of starting pitching this past season, the Cardinals struck early and added Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. It's also hard to see St. Louis suffering through back-to-back lousy season considering its ability to develop players and the talent the team already has at the MLB level.

The Cubs almost assuredly will have a top-10 payroll and poached Craig Counsell from Milwaukee, while the Reds have been active on the free agent market, signing Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez and Jeimer Candelario.

Plus, does anyone really think the Brewers — who've been relatively quiet outside of signing Jackson Chourio to a record contract for a prospect — are suddenly going to take several steps back?

The Pirates' inactivity has been made worse by context. With solid starting pitching fits such as Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo, Luis Severino and Michael Wacha signing elsewhere, for one. And even a team like the Kansas City Royals far outspending the Pirates to better themselves for 2024.

Again, there's a way the Pirates clearly want to operate: internal improvement, strategic additions, leveraging technology and new coaching concepts, all that stuff. It'll never be a headline-grabbing offseason.

But at this point, examining the past few months, they clearly need a strong finishing kick to change how this year's team — and the Pirates' overall interest in competing — will be perceived.

Jason Mackey: jmackey@post-gazette.com and Twitter @JMackeyPG.

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